By Fintan Daly
As the AFL season looms close, a promising year of thrilling footy beckons. The excitement is tangible. There are 18 teams, and one dream. To lift the premiership cup in September. These are my humble predictions for the AFL this year.
Brownlow Medal – Tom Green
Honorable mentions: Darcy Parish, Nick Daicos, Errol Gulden, Marcus Bontempelli
At 23 years of age, Giants midfielder Tom Green has a lot in front of him in terms of his AFL career. He debuted in 2020, and since then he has blown away the footy world with his ball skills and in-and-under midfield prowess that made him a dominant player from the outset. With a massive fan club behind him everywhere he goes, especially in Canberra where his fan club occupies a whole bay of Manuka Oval, his popularity and carefree attitude has made him a popular figure nation-wide.
In 2023 he averaged an incredible 32 disposals, the highest in the league. He also averaged 7.1 score involvements, and 15 contested possesions. Compare this to Lachie Neale, the winner of last year’s Brownlow medal. Neale averaged 27 disposals, 14 contested possessions, and 6 score involvements. Green was higher in every category. This illustrates his versatility and all-roundedness as a player. He picks up possessions with ease in the midfield, pushes up the field to set up goals, and gets into the contests to feed the ball to his teammates. The game of football rarely comes across players with these attributes. And although the likes of Nick Daicos (young Collingwood superstar), Marcus “Bont” Bontempelli (veteran Western Bulldogs ball magnet), Errol Gulden (Sydney Swans gun midfielder) will be snapping at his feet, 2024 is the year Tom Green rises above the rest.
Rising Star – Colby McKercher
Honorable mentions: Ryley Sanders, Daniel Curtin, Harley Reid
Picked at #2 by North Melbourne in 2024’s National Draft, Colby McKercher is a bullish midfielder hailing from Launceston, Tasmania whose playing style has been compared to Zach Merrett and who looks set to dominate North’s midfield this year. A prolific ball-winner with speed and a brilliant left boot, McKercher helped the Tasmania Devils reach the U18 Boys Coates Talent League preliminary finals, averaging 29 disposals and a goal per game inside the team’s engine room. He was also key in the Allies’ undefeated run towards its maiden U18 Boys National title. McKercher is likely to play off half-back this year for the Roos and will almost certainly debut in Round 1. Regarding McKercher, North co-captain Jy Simpkin said: “You don’t see too many first-year draftees come into a club and actually you sit back and watch training and go ‘holy crap, he is dominating out there’. (Colby) is one of those players who can play mid-back-forward, on the wing. He has dominated training.”
Ryley Sanders (Bulldogs midfielder), Harley Reid (Eagles #1 Draft Pick) and Daniel Curtin (Adelaide Crows defender) are also strong cases to make an impact in their first year of footy in 2024, but McKercher’s talent and adaptability puts him in front of other rookies.
Coleman Medal – Jeremy Cameron
Honorable mentions: Charlie Curnow, Nick Larkey, Toby Greene
The Geelong sharpshooter had a stellar year in 2023, finishing eighth in the Coleman race and kicking 8 bags of 3 goals plus. He burst off the blocks in the early rounds, but his run of games at the end of season was what cost him his push for the medal. The 30-year old had a goal accuracy of 50% last year which, if improved on, could result in astronomical numbers from the Giant-turned-Cat veteran. He averaged 16 disposals in 2023 which is considered elite for forwards by Champion Data. He also averaged 2.7 goals, ending the year on a total of 53. In his nine seasons with the GWS Giants he won the club’s leading goalkicker award in every season and won Geelong’s best and fairest in 2022 when he combined with Tom Hawkins to kick 132 goals between them.
This year, in his twelfth year of AFL football, Cameron is primed to kick 60+ goals if he stays injury-free. Last year’s winner Charlie Curnow, North powerhouse Nick “Souva” Larkey and Giants bad boy Toby Greene are in contention to take out the prestige award, but Cameron’s experience means he has the strength to outscore them.
Premiership – Sydney
In 2022, the Sydney Swans came so close to the ultimate prize, and in 2023 they made the finals for the ninth time in eleven seasons. In 2024, new signings Brodie Grundy, Taylor Adams and James Jordon could be the key to their September dreams being realised. As a die-hard Sydney fan myself, this prediction is overflowing with bias. But I genuinely believe that with the star-studded lineup the Swans have this year, they can go all the way. Errol Gulden is emerging as a future Brownlow winner in the midfield, speedster Nick “Lizard” Blakey is signed on until 2031 and, of course, Brodie Grundy seems to have found his place after a turbulent year at the demons and is set to demolish in the ruck this year. Furthermore, the “post-Buddy era”, as people are calling it, will need young forwards like Logan McDonald, Hayden McLean and Joel Amartey to lead the way and emerge as the next generation. This gives opportunities to rookies who can move up the ranks and prove themselves at AFL level.
As someone who was at the 2022 Grand Final in Melbourne where the Swans were demolished by Geelong, I felt just how close the club got to a taste of silverware. I’m sure many of Sydney’s more experienced players such as Luke Parker, Harry Cunningham and Dane Rampe will be in no mood to go through that disappointment again, and they will be doing everything they can to bring the flag to the Harbour City. With a reported 1.34 million supporters across Australia, the most of any club, Sydney are ready to win this year, and so are their fans.
Eighteen teams, one dream. This is the AFL, and this year it’s going to be shaken up like never before. Bring it on.